Weekly Edition
W10: 28 Feb to 7 Mar 2026
Executive summary
- Hostility around Iran runs both ways in the first eight days of the record. Iran is the target in 835 events, more than any other actor, and the acting party in 782, also more than any other. The acts against it come mainly from the United States (321 events) and Israel (320).
- Iran's own acts spread much wider than the acts against it. They reach 12 states in 7 or more events each, Israel (193) and the United States (117), the six Gulf states, with the United Arab Emirates first at 71, and Azerbaijan (15), Turkey (13), Jordan (9) and Cyprus (7). Iran is recorded against the six Gulf states in 174 events; W10 is the first week of the record.
- The record holds 9,689 events, and the daily count falls 44% across the period, from 1,694 on 28 Feb to 951 on 7 Mar. Lebanon steps up on 2 Mar, from 14 events the day before to 145, as Hezbollah acts in 28 events that day after 5 the day before. The oil benchmark closed at USD 95.74 a barrel on 6 Mar, 34% above the last pre-war close of 71.32.
- Across the period's series, the share of the day's events recorded for Iran falls from 34.8% on 28 Feb to 21.8% on 7 Mar, while the share recorded for Lebanon moves from 0.9% on 1 Mar to 11.8% on 2 Mar. Severity per event stays between 2.09 and 2.26.
- The Editor's Pick is the week's combined map, and its largest hotspots over 28 Feb to 7 Mar are Tehran (396 events), Tel Aviv (334) and Kokhav Ya’ir (169).
- The debate section finds the data supports the claim of a price shock in the week, on the record's own oil benchmark. The record cannot measure the four other questions, on shipping through Hormuz, the Gulf states joining the war, the widening of the war in Lebanon and new fronts in Iraq and northwestern Iran.
- Watch whether Iran's acts keep reaching 12 states, whether events recorded for Lebanon stay near the 63 of 7 Mar, and whether the oil benchmark passes 100 a barrel from its 6 Mar close of 95.74.
1. What moved
How many events the record holds, and of what kind
The record holds 9,689 events for the period, with 7,354 claims about them from 26 sources, and 853 actors tied to at least one other actor. The first two days are the fullest, 1,694 events on 28 Feb and 1,638 on 1 Mar. The count then steps down to 1,226 on 2 Mar and settles between 912 and 951 from 5 to 7 Mar, 44% below the opening day by the last. Two days stand below the range of the days before them, 2 Mar and 4 Mar (1,026), though the first days have as few as 2 days to be read against. Escalation is not assessed. The test compares each day with the seven days before it, and only 7 Mar has seven days of record behind it.
How severe the located events are, country by country
Every event carries a severity class from 1 to 5, from statements and cooperation in class 1 to open fighting or mass violence in class 5; the table below gives what puts an event in each class. News, messaging and article records give no severity grade of their own, so their events start in class 2, the baseline; the class 2 share therefore reflects the source mix and is not a reading of low intensity. Only some sources grade severity.
